AHL Farm Rankings: #16 Whalers

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Cheapthief
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AHL Farm Rankings: #16 Whalers

Post by Cheapthief » Sun Apr 25, 2021 2:43 pm

#16 Whalers

There were a lot of factors that went into evaluating a players value in the AHL, including age of the prospect, salary, and progression. A younger prospect is given more leeway in terms of production than an older player who has yet to produce at the pro level. The level of competition was also factored.

We broke down the teams into 5 tiers:

Tier 1: PPG potential for a $3.00 forward, 50 point potential for a dman. This group will also have some players with lower base salaries that have high upside, but they aren’t held to quite that standard. For a $1.00 3rd rd pick he needs to have 60+ point upside to be in this elite tier. Most every top prospect drafted in 2020 is given serious consideration of being in this tier.

Tier 2: This is where you will find the very good prospects, some $3.00 players who have regressed a little, and some cheaper players on the uptick production wise.

Tier 3: With the players in this group, their trajectory could go either way and the jury is still out. Typically there is potential at reaching tier 2, but just as likely to fall to the bottom.

Tier 4: They are still considered prospects, but their days are numbers and they don’t have a lot of time left to break out.

Tier 5: These are the duds. The only reason any of them should be on a farm is because there is extra space. There is no upside.

In ranking the farms, the entire farm depth was looked at, with extra weight given to high end talents, especially those already producing at the NHL level.

For each report we will cover the average age of the group, number of players drafted by round, and finally, the number of players on in the NHL now. Within the summary write up for every team, we will also include what their draft pick status for the next 3 seasons.

Summary:

The Whalers would appear to have a win now lineup… but I’m not so sure it can win now. When compared to other threats not only in the division of death, but across the league, the Whalers don’t match up well with the top teams in the league and the pipeline isn’t strong with any immediate help on the way. I was being generous calling Erik Brannstrom a tier 1 prospect based on what he has done thus far, but he is clearly still the star of this farm group.

When we talk about a core, I’m referring to a core of young players, 27 and under that can be kept long term and are worthwhile. This core is not where it needs to be. Anthony Beauvellier 23 at $2 is nice, Adrian Kempe 24 a $1 free agent also decent, and then late bloomer Luke Kunin 23 signed for two more years at .50 is good value. It would be hard pressed to argue there are any other players on this team that are part of the core. So where does this team go? Is it time for a firesafe to restock the farm? Do they have quality assets to offer in trades to improve now? We will take a look…

Cap space is consistently close to $60 all 3 years, but in terms of picks, there is some good news. The good news is that this upcoming draft, which should be a bigger crapshoot than any draft in history due to Covid limiting scouting opportunities, the Whalers have the right kind of picks and plenty of them. He owns his own 1st and 3rd in 21-22, with two additional 3rds and a 4th rd pick. Some may argue that a 3rd rd pick is more valuable than a 2nd this season. In 22-23 he owns all of his own picks. In 23-24 he owns all his own picks, plus what should be a valuable Mustangs second rounder. Can they add enough at the free agent draft to compete in the AHL North? Is this a playoff team with Broadway, Screamin’ Eagles, and Swackers on the rise? I’m not so sure. The Whalers could be entering into an era of mediocrity like his fellow countryman in California.

I suspect this GM will make some key decisions for the franchise and it could look a whole lot different in the next 2-3 years. if the rebuild doesn’t happen this year, it’s not far off.

Average Age: 22.8

Currently in the NHL: 4

1st rd picks: 2

2nd rd picks: 3

3rd rd picks: 5

4th rd picks: 9


Tier 1:

Erik Brannstrom 21 D OTT $2.50 NHL 18 2-5=7
-Still very high offensive upside for this young dman

Tier 2:

Noel Gunler 19 F CAR $2.00 SweHL 29 7-5=12
-Improved numbers in SweHL, long term wait and see project

Tier 3:

Ozzy Weisblatt 19 F SJ $1.00 WHL 17 4-16=20
-Solid, similar WHL numbers, plenty of time to develop before getting a look in the NHL
Kieffer Bellows 22 F NYI $3.00 NHL 14 3-0=3
-Underperforming for a $3 player, but put up ok numbers in the AHL
Christian Djoos 26 D DET $0.50 NHL 35 2-8=10
-Has an NHL job for now and posted decent numbers this season for a .50 older farm hand
Alex Barre-Boulet 23 F TB $1.50 NHL 3 0-0=0
-Big time AHL scorer, needs to prove he can do it in the NHL

Tier 4:

Mathias Emilio Pettersen 21 F CAL $1.00 AHL 23 5-6=11
-Decent rookie AHL numbers after a PPG season in college. Long shot, but not dead yet
Jan Mysak 18 F MTL $1.50 AHL 13 2-0=2
-Too early to judge an 18 year old in the AHL, but didn't produce in 11 Czech league games
Matias Maccelli 20 F ARI $0.50 SML 51 15-24=39
-Similar numbers in two seasons in the SML, will need to pick it up to get a shot at an NHL job
Andre Altybarmakyan 22 F CHI $0.50 AHL 18 3-5=8
-22 year old AHL rookie has some upside, but will need some time playing hockey at the AHL level

Tier 5:

Otto Koivula 22 F NYI $1.00 AHL 14 1-4=5
-Already 22 and offensive improvement hasn't materialized, he has regressed instead
Mitch Reinke 25 D STL $0.50 AHL 13 1-7=8
-OK AHL numbers this season but he is 25 and hasn't progressed enough to be an impact NHL player
Jimmy Schuldt 25 D VGK $0.50 AHL 25 5-6=11
-A decent college career hasn't translated to pro hockey and he has slid down the depth chart in Vegas
Dmitri Sokolov 23 F MIN $0.50 AHL 14 3-1=4
-23 year old having an awful season in the AHL regressing significantly
Daniel O'Regan 27 F VGK $1.00 AHL 25 5-14=19
-He is 27 and only played 24 NHL games. Breakout isn't going to happen
Kevin Roy 27 F FLA $0.50 AHL 24 10-16=26
-A point of game 27 year old AHLer isn't something to get excited about
Andrew Nielsen 24 D CAL $1.00 AHL 3 0-0=0
-200+ AHL games, zero NHL games and that's not going to change
Chase Priskie 25 D FLA $0.50 AHL 5 0-2=2
-Already 25 has never had a sniff at NHL action and it's a long shot that he ever does
Hudson Fasching 25 F ARI $0.50 AHL 2 0-1=1
-A few decent AHL seasons earned him some NHL starts, but he is a long shot to stick

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