#14 Underdogs
There were a lot of factors that went into evaluating a players value in the AHL, including age of the prospect, salary, and progression. A younger prospect is given more leeway in terms of production than an older player who has yet to produce at the pro level. The level of competition was also factored.
We broke down the teams into 5 tiers:
Tier 1: PPG potential for a $3.00 forward, 50 point potential for a dman. This group will also have some players with lower base salaries that have high upside, but they aren’t held to quite that standard. For a $1.00 3rd rd pick he needs to have 60+ point upside to be in this elite tier. Most every top prospect drafted in 2020 is given serious consideration of being in this tier.
Tier 2: This is where you will find the very good prospects, some $3.00 players who have regressed a little, and some cheaper players on the uptick production wise.
Tier 3: With the players in this group, their trajectory could go either way and the jury is still out. Typically there is potential at reaching tier 2, but just as likely to fall to the bottom.
Tier 4: They are still considered prospects, but their days are numbers and they don’t have a lot of time left to break out.
Tier 5: These are the duds. The only reason any of them should be on a farm is because there is extra space. There is no upside.
In ranking the farms, the entire farm depth was looked at, with extra weight given to high end talents, especially those already producing at the NHL level.
For each report we will cover the average age of the group, number of players drafted by round, and finally, the number of players on in the NHL now. Within the summary write up for every team, we will also include what their draft pick status for the next 3 seasons.
Summary:
The Underdogs looked promising this season, but it looks like the team won’t be getting any better this coming year with just $48 in cap space and a minimal core. There is some NHL ready help on the farm in Pius Suter who has been outstanding as a rookie and comes with a cheap $1.50 price tag, but past that its mostly projects.
Having said all that, there is a core to work with here. Cale Makar 22 is $2.50 and will be signing a 3 year deal and be a bargain no matter what that contract looks like. Past that you have Sam Reinhart 25 $3.75 who is also a free agent, then Travis Konecny 24 $4.25 free agent will be in for a raise. Dylan Larkin 24 is the franchise player signed to an odd contact with two more years at $3.00 before a year at $3.50 then he is going to look for a raise. The last notable core player is Josh Norris 21 who is a $1.00 Aho eligible bargain. Most of this core is going to be asking for a raise and that’s an issue for a cap strapped team. Just $48 available in 21-22, $49 in 22-23, and then $53 in 23-24.
So how about the pipeline? Whats on the farm isn’t great, and unfortunately there isn’t a lot of picks available over the next three seasons. In 21-22 he owns the Cheap Thieves 4th, that’s it. In 22-23 he does own his own 1st and 3rd rd picks, and in 23-24 he owns just his own 2nd. That’s a total of 4 picks over the next 3 years for a team with a weak farm currently, not a lot of cash to pay free agents, and a 5 man core consisting of a dman and 4 forwards.
So, where does this team go? With talent like Makar and Larkin only going to get better, it would appear that the team is on the rise, but are they? Is this team deep enough to go all the way? They do sit in the weak AHL East so a playoff spot is a reasonable expectation, but the team is going to be a step behind the powerhouses in the league.
Average Age: 22.7
Currently in the NHL: 4
1st rd picks: 1
2nd rd picks: 4
3rd rd picks: 7
4th rd picks: 3
Tier 1:
Pius Suter 24 F CHI $1.50 NHL 45 12-8=20
-Outstanding rookie season in Chicago, already 24 so prime years are now, question is how much more upside is there from here
Tier 2:
Ridley Greig 18 F OTT $1.50 WHL 16 8-17=25
-Crushing the W as you would expect from a 1st rd pick in his 4th year in junior, the real test will be in the AHL
Danil Gushchin 19 F SJ $0.50 USHL 44 29-31=60
-Clearly he has proven he can put the puck in the net in the USHL, three straight seasons of solid progression
Ryan O'Rourke 18 D MIN $0.50 AHL 24 1-5=6
-Made the jump to the AHL as an 18 year old and is chipping in modestly, developing nicely at the pro level
Jonah Gadjovich 22 F VAN $1.00 AHL 13 11-2=13
-There are signs of life and progression here with 11 goals in 13 AHL games this season
Tier 3:
Braden Schneider 19 D NYR $1.00 WHL 17 3-16=19
-Not expected to be a big offensive producer at the NHL level, but he sure is doing it in the W at better than PPG
Luke Evangelista 19 F NSH $1.00 AHL 5 0-1=1
-Early jump to the Wolves after a PPG season in the OHL, a wait and see approach with a nice $1 price tag
Tier 4:
Shane Bowers 21 F COL $1.00 AHL 21 5-1=6
-Major regression after a promising sophomore season in the AHL
Tier 5:
Jeremy Roy 23 D SJ $1.00 AHL 13 0-1=1
-One OK sophomore season in the AHL and it's been a slide ever since
Ryan MacInnis 25 F CBJ $0.50 NHL 7 0-0=0
-A 5 year AHL career with no production and he is continuing with that consistency with 1 assist in 17 NHL games
Francis Perron 25 F VAN $1.00 Swe-1 16 4-6=10
-After 4 mediocre AHL seasons he has taken his talents to the Swe-1
Connor Bleackley 25 F ARI $2.00 ECHL 32 4-5=9
-Career minor leauger has bounced around several leagues without a sniff of NHL action and it ain't gonna ever happen
Kerby Rychel 26 F MTL $2.50 AHL 6 0-1=1
-A former 1st pick is already 26 and the window for relevance has been closed for some time now
Stefan Matteau 27 F CBL $1.50 NHL 11 1-0=1
-Is it just me, or does it feel like this guy has been around since the 90's despite only playing 84 NHL games?
Jared Tinordi 29 D BOS $1.00 NHL 13 0-0=0
-He is 29, and still a couple years away from a forced Toews call up