AHL Farm Rankings: #13 Canadian Gothic

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Cheapthief
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AHL Farm Rankings: #13 Canadian Gothic

Post by Cheapthief » Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:06 pm

#13 Canadian Gothic

There were a lot of factors that went into evaluating a players value in the AHL, including age of the prospect, salary, and progression. A younger prospect is given more leeway in terms of production than an older player who has yet to produce at the pro level. The level of competition was also factored.

We broke down the teams into 5 tiers:

Tier 1: PPG potential for a $3.00 forward, 50 point potential for a dman. This group will also have some players with lower base salaries that have high upside, but they aren’t held to quite that standard. For a $1.00 3rd rd pick he needs to have 60+ point upside to be in this elite tier. Most every top prospect drafted in 2020 is given serious consideration of being in this tier.

Tier 2: This is where you will find the very good prospects, some $3.00 players who have regressed a little, and some cheaper players on the uptick production wise.

Tier 3: With the players in this group, their trajectory could go either way and the jury is still out. Typically there is potential at reaching tier 2, but just as likely to fall to the bottom.

Tier 4: They are still considered prospects, but their days are numbers and they don’t have a lot of time left to break out.

Tier 5: These are the duds. The only reason any of them should be on a farm is because there is extra space. There is no upside.

In ranking the farms, the entire farm depth was looked at, with extra weight given to high end talents, especially those already producing at the NHL level.

For each report we will cover the average age of the group, number of players drafted by round, and finally, the number of players on in the NHL now. Within the summary write up for every team, we will also include what their draft pick status for the next 3 seasons.

Summary:


Canadian Gothic had a run at the top of the AHL East for years and built a contender each season. This season they trended downward and actually missed the playoffs. Some of the stars on this team got older and stopped producing while others moved on to other teams (PK Subban) . With the team being in win now mode for quite some time, it’s surprising to see that they have a full farm with just one clear dud, and a makeup of no first round picks, but 17 picks in the 3rd or 4th round. Based on that spread, you have to come away with the idea that this team has drafted well to maintain prospects picked so late, who at the very least, have some upside. What’s missing on this farm is high end talent which you will typically find in the first round.

The next two seasons the team will have some issues with cap space at $54 each of the next two seasons, but the GM likely knows that the window to win is closed and it’s time to rebuild for the future. The core is on the older side to be considered a young core, but the contracts are excellent. Jake Guentzel 26 will finally get a raise from that $1.25 contract and is a lock to get the full 3 year extension. Bo Horvat 26 at $6.25 may not get resigned but is a valuable piece. Two cheap contracts for players with talent include Jordan Greenway 24, 0.50 cent free agent, and Alexander Kerfoot 26 at .75 signed. There may be 3-5 more players signed, but none of them would be considered part of a young long term core.

So where is the value on this farm? Cheap players either in the NHL already, or should be some day. Three players in tier 2, heavily influenced by the salary attached to the player. Mason Appleton 25, for example, isn’t a world beater but at .50 and half a point production per game, this is a usable depth player.

While the Gothic have drafted well as a perennial division winner, it’s very likely this team is headed for a rebuild the next couple years. So, what does the draft pick status look like? It doesn’t look like one that would resemble a rebuilding team, more so a team in win now mode so that needs to shift in a hurry. This year, he smartly traded for his first round pick back and now owns his 1st, 4th, and the Shortstackers 2nd. 22-23 is bleak with just his own 3rd, but in 23-24 he holds all of his own picks.

So while this farm is decent, all things considered from a price tag perspective, it will need an influx of high end tier 1 players to get Canadian Gothic back to its winning ways. With both Mustangs and Underdogs in no mans land at the moment, it shouldn’t take too long.

Average Age: 21.6

Currently in the NHL: 4 

1st rd picks: 0

2nd rd picks: 3

3rd rd picks: 8

4th rd picks: 9




Tier 1:

Not quite.

Tier 2:

Mason Appleton 25 F WPG $0.50 NHL 45 9-11=20
-Fantastic breakout season, will be a forced Toews call up this year and at .50 could be a real long term bargain
Calen Addison 21 D MIN $1.00 AHL 22 6-11=17
-Incredible numbers for a rookie defenseman in the AHL, could be in the NHL as early as next season, but likely not a regular for a couple years
Alexander Volkov 23 F ANA $1.00 NHL 8 1-4=5
-A move to Anaheim from Tampa opens up an opportunity and he is taking charge with 4 goals in 8 games


Tier 3:

Jack Rathbone 21 D VAN $1.00 AHL 8 2-7=9
-A PPG AHL rookie is doing what he needs to do to get a look after two solid college seasons
Jusso Parssinen 20 F NSH $0.50 SML 55 8-34=42
-Breakout season in the SML almost a PPG player will have Nashville keeping a close eye since they are light on young impact forwards
Topi Niemela 19 D TOR $1.00 SML 15 0-4=4
-Dazzled for Finland at the WJC, projects as a PP QB but he needs several years to cook before crossing the pond
Josh Brook 21 D MTL $0.50 AHL 24 2-11=13
-In year 2 in the AHL he reached the same point total from the previous year in 60 games, in just 24 so he is headed in the right direction
Reilly Walsh 21 D NJ $0.50 AHL 20 2-8=10
-You don't need a lot for a .50 dman to have value, and he is performing well after 3 college seasons and is showing 30+ pt upside at the NHL level
Patrik Puistola 20 F CAR $1.00 SML 50 4-14=14
-A consistent presence for Finland at the WJC, trying to get settled in the SML after bouncing around multiple times already
Domenick Fensore 19 D CAR $0.50 H-East 16 2-6=8
-Similar production in two college seasons, next year he should play a more prominent role in Boston U and increase offensive production... or not


Tier 4:

Sasha Chmelevski 21 F SJ $2.00 AHL 20 5-6=11
-He has junior pedigree offensively but has put up mediocre numbers in two seasons at the AHL level
Axel Andersson 21 D ANA $0.50 AHL 5 0-2=2
-There is always some value in a .50 flier pick on a dman, but he is already 21 so its time for him to up the progression curve next season
Mattias Norlinder 21 D MTL $1.00 SweHL 37 5-5=10
-Considering he moved from Swe-1 to SweHL, his point dip isn't a concern, but he will need to step it up and is a long term project years away from the NHL
Givani Smith 23 F DET $0.50 AHL 13 5-5=10
-Having a decent AHL season, but isn't projected to play a top 6 role in the NHL
Johnny Tychonick 21 D OTT $0.50 NCHC 23 3-5=8
-For a college prospect you need to see a jump in year 3, but instead we see regression which doesn't bode well
Nick Paul 26 F OTT $1.00 NHL 45 4-10=14
-What you see is what you get for a forced Toews callup next year, unlikely to be resigned even at $1 past that
Libor Hajek 23 D NYR $1.00 NHL 34 2-1=3
-He's in the NHL at age 23 and while dmen often take a little time to develop offensively, I don't see the pedigree here for a potential 30+ pt dman
Urho Vaakanainen 22 D BOS $0.50 AHL 7 0-2=2
-Disappointing progression for this 2017 1st rd pick who at 22, should be producing at the AHL level and we aren't seeing it
Jan Jenik 20 F ARI $2.00 AHL 21 2-4=6
-AHL rookie not producing offensively and if that doesn't change next year he is headed toward dud status


Tier 5:

Dymytro Timashov 24 F NYI $1.50 AHL 16 3-5=8
-At 24 in the AHL you need to be a PPG player to have a real shot, and he just isn't going to materialize

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