#12 PK Dealers
There were a lot of factors that went into evaluating a players value in the AHL, including age of the prospect, salary, and progression. A younger prospect is given more leeway in terms of production than an older player who has yet to produce at the pro level. The level of competition was also factored.
We broke down the teams into 5 tiers:
Tier 1: PPG potential for a $3.00 forward, 50 point potential for a dman. This group will also have some players with lower base salaries that have high upside, but they aren’t held to quite that standard. For a $1.00 3rd rd pick he needs to have 60+ point upside to be in this elite tier. Most every top prospect drafted in 2020 is given serious consideration of being in this tier.
Tier 2: This is where you will find the very good prospects, some $3.00 players who have regressed a little, and some cheaper players on the uptick production wise.
Tier 3: With the players in this group, their trajectory could go either way and the jury is still out. Typically there is potential at reaching tier 2, but just as likely to fall to the bottom.
Tier 4: They are still considered prospects, but their days are numbers and they don’t have a lot of time left to break out.
Tier 5: These are the duds. The only reason any of them should be on a farm is because there is extra space. There is no upside.
In ranking the farms, the entire farm depth was looked at, with extra weight given to high end talents, especially those already producing at the NHL level.
For each report we will cover the average age of the group, number of players drafted by round, and finally, the number of players on in the NHL now. Within the summary write up for every team, we will also include what their draft pick status for the next 3 seasons.
Summary:
The goalie gurus are up to some strange shenanigans. Last season they set out to break a record for worst season ever and as many no goalie games as possible to increase their chances at a top prize at the draft. Considering how bad this team is, this makes perfect sense. What doesn’t, is they only have one pick this year. All their eggs in one basket hoping the dice roll their way and they get a bonafide superstar. Missing out on picks at 21, 41, and 61 for a 4th rounder. It gets more puzzling when you notice that they do not own their first round pick next season- that belongs to the Cheap Thieves. They do own their own 2nd and 4th with an extra 4th, followed by their own 1st, 3rd, and 4th in 23-24 also an extra 1st, 2nd, two 3rds and a 4th for a total of 8 picks. It’s chaotic to say the least.
So what exactly are they doing? What is the goal for the next season ahead and beyond? In 23-24 they also are missing $10 in cap space, so there isn’t any indication that they can build a legitimate winner until past the 24-25 season.
Or maybe there is a young core destined to break out? No. There is no core whatsoever. I can’t find a single worthwhile keepable player under 27 that would resemble a core. It’s barren. This has to be what rock bottom looks like, and the South is about to get a whole lot tougher as Broadway, Eagles, and Swackers turn towards becoming contenders. The PK Dealers will contend with Scarborough Shooters for bottom of the South, and have another excellent shot at breaking the all time record for futility next season. This franchise isn't in the worst shape of any team, that honor goes to the California Mustangs, but the situation is not good at the moment.
Well, what’s on the farm then? There has to be some beauties, right? There isn’t a 1st rd pick on the farm, but there is some cheaper talent that qualifies as tier 1. Kubalik gets to hang on the farm another year before a forced call up, and Devon Toews is getting great deployment in Colorado and is great value at .50, but he will be forced on to the roster this season, but could also be excellent trade bait. It’s bad. It’s not the worst farm in the league (again that's the Mustangs), but it needs a serious boost for such a bad team. You do have 9 farmies in the NHL, but they just aren’t very good. Travis Boyd isn’t going to save the franchise. Dylan Gambrell is a solid 4th liner, great, but really, for a team that tanked so hard you would have figured their rebuild was already in motion, but it may not even start ramping up until 24-25. That’s a long wait, but I don’t see any real hope before then.
Average Age: 25.3
Currently in the NHL: 9
1st rd picks: 0
2nd rd picks: 4
3rd rd picks: 4
4th rd picks: 12
Tier 1:
Dominik Kubalik 25 F CHI $1.50 NHL 45 14-15=29
-Will squeak out one more year before Toews call up, and at 1.50 has proven to surpass all expectations by a mile with a 30 goal rookie season in just 68 games
Devon Toews 27 D COL $0.50 NHL 40- 6-17=23
-Finally at 27 he is a forced Toews callup, but earned a prominent role on a high octane offense in Colorado which boosts his value further
Tier 2:
Jack Dugan 23 F VGK $1.00 AHL 24 5-17=22
-Intriguing prospect at $1, after destroying the college ranks he is a PPG player for the Silver Knights in the AHL
Martin Fehervary 21 D WSH $0.50 AHL 17 2-9=11
-Nice uptick in his second AHL season for this .50 dman with upside
Alexander Texier 21 F CLB $2.00 NHL 41 4-11=15
-Back to back mediocre seasons on an offensively challenged Blue Jackets squad
Dennis Cholowski 23 D DET $1.50 AHL 13 3-7=10
-Had a great rookie NHL season, regressed, and put up good numbers in the AHL this season, jury still out on his upside
Tier 3:
Teddy Blueger 26 F PIT $1.50 NHL 31 4-13=17
-A competent bottom 6 role player with little upside is having a career year, but the ceiling is low
Vladislav Gavrikov 25 D CBJ $0.50 NHL 44 1-6=7
-He is an NHL player so there is that, and he is just .50 with another year of farm eligibility, but don't expect a 30 pt season in his future
Tier 4:
Dylan Gambrell 24 F SJ $0.50 NHL 39 5-6=11
-Cheap, mediocre bottom 6 player on the Sharks, and you shouldn't expect that to ever change
Morgan Geekie 22 F CAR $1.00 NHL 23 2-1=3
-Two impressive AHL seasons offensively, but likely to be a role player at the next level
Travis Boyd 27 F VAN $0.50 NHL 20 3-5=8
-Over 100 NHL games played, isn't ever going to see top 6 minutes on an NHL team
Tier 5:
Johnny Brodzinski 27 F NYR $0.50 AHL 8 4-7=11
-He's had his time to shine in the NHL, and while that didn't happen, and isn't going to happen, he is a solid AHL scorer
Dylan Samberg 22 D WPG $0.50 AHL 20 0-1=1
-One measly assist in 20 AHL games isn't the debut the AHL rookie was hoping for after a reasonable college career
Yegor Rykov 24 D NYR $0.50 KHL 49 0-9=9
-You don't want to be overly critical of young players numbers in the KHL, but he ain't exactly young anymore...
Steven Santini 26 D STL $0.50 AHL 5 1-1=2
-21 pts in 116 career NHL games. That's what his epitaph shall read
Andy Welinski 27 D ANA $1.00 NHL 10 0-0=0
-A couple productive years in the AHL doesn't stop this one from being a dud
Casey Nelson 28 D BUF $1.00 AHL 48 4-8=12
-He is 28 and his NHL hopes are no longer
Robbie Russo 28 D ARI $0.50 AHL 24 2-8=10
-With the PK Dealers in a rebuild, expect them to cut a healthy chunk of this type of dead weight
Kevin Gravel 29 D TOR $0.50 AHL 27 1-5=6
-He is 29, and closer to a retirement facility than he is an NHL career
Tim Heed 30 D SJ $0.50 Swiss-A 40 13-14=27
-At 30, he finally found a league where he could compete, the Swiss-A