AHL Farm Rankings: #10 Winning Combination

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Cheapthief
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AHL Farm Rankings: #10 Winning Combination

Post by Cheapthief » Sat May 01, 2021 1:50 pm

#10 Winning Combination

There were a lot of factors that went into evaluating a players value in the AHL, including age of the prospect, salary, and progression. A younger prospect is given more leeway in terms of production than an older player who has yet to produce at the pro level. The level of competition was also factored.

We broke down the teams into 5 tiers:

Tier 1: PPG potential for a $3.00 forward, 50 point potential for a dman. This group will also have some players with lower base salaries that have high upside, but they aren’t held to quite that standard. For a $1.00 3rd rd pick he needs to have 60+ point upside to be in this elite tier. Most every top prospect drafted in 2020 is given serious consideration of being in this tier.

Tier 2: This is where you will find the very good prospects, some $3.00 players who have regressed a little, and some cheaper players on the uptick production wise.

Tier 3: With the players in this group, their trajectory could go either way and the jury is still out. Typically there is potential at reaching tier 2, but just as likely to fall to the bottom.

Tier 4: They are still considered prospects, but their days are numbers and they don’t have a lot of time left to break out.

Tier 5: These are the duds. The only reason any of them should be on a farm is because there is extra space. There is no upside.

In ranking the farms, the entire farm depth was looked at, with extra weight given to high end talents, especially those already producing at the NHL level.

For each report we will cover the average age of the group, number of players drafted by round, and finally, the number of players on in the NHL now. Within the summary write up for every team, we will also include what their draft pick status for the next 3 seasons.

Summary:

With Winning Combination what you see is quality over quantity with just 11 farmies, but 9 of them still holding value and potential. More than half the prospects are tier 1 and tier 2, but potential still past that with the likes of Sam Steel and Max Jones. Those two are so similar in terms of their place and value on the team. Same age, similar salary, and similar NHL numbers. I would imagine tough decisions will need to be made on both since they will lose farm eligibility soon.

This was a playoff team last season, and all expectations are pointed towards another playoff season thanks to a decent young core led by Quinn Hughes 21 who will get a pay jump at $3.00 currently. You then have Shea Theodore 25 locked up cheap at $3.75 and $4.25, and Vince Dunn 24 at $1 on the back end will also be a free agent looking for a 3 year deal. At forward, the core is led by superstar Brayden Point 25 already locked up for $4.50 next season. Add in Kailer Yamamoto 22 a $2.50 FA, and a cheap Joel Eriksson Ek 24 a 0.50 free agent and you are looking at a nice little core.

A decent core, a decent farm, makes this a decent, but not great team coming into this season with just a $55 cap and $60 for each of the next two. There is lots of room on the farm, and plenty of picks to stock it in this upcoming crap shoot draft. He owns all 4 of his own picks with an additional 1st, and two extra 3rd rd picks for a total of 8 picks in 21-22. In 22-23 and 23-24 he holds the rights to all 4 of his picks, with an additional 3rd in 23-24. Lots of bullets to fire at the draft if the GM decides to keep them rather than trade in some as currency to bolster the team in the upcoming season. There is still enough room under the cap to add via free agency, but the GM is going to have to be very effective and try to find some valuable bargains to fill out the rest of this team. It’s unlikely they are on the same level as Puck Warfare, who will be the class of the division over the next few seasons.

Average Age: 21.1

Currently in the NHL: 4

1st rd picks: 5

2nd rd picks: 4

3rd rd picks: 1

4th rd picks: 1



Tier 1:

Peyton Krebs 20 F VGK $2.50 WHL 20 11-26=37
-Just like Lapierre, he was on crutches for draft day and slid to the Knights who gambled and it's paying off, almost 2 PPG in the W
Alex Newhook 20 F COL $2.50 AHL 2 1-1=2
-Tore it up in college for two years and in limited AHL action is continuing to do what he does, put points on the board
Henri Jokiharju 21 D BUF $2.00 NHL 36 3-5=8
-A lot to like with this dman, still quite young and producing reasonably well on the woeful Sabres


Tier 2:

Casey Mittelstadt 22 F BUF $3.00 NHL 31 8-7=15
-Famously couldn't do a pullup at the combine, he is starting to turn his career around with some decent numbers on an awful Sabres team
Roby Jarventie 18 F OTT $1.50 SML 48 14-11=25
-Excellent production for an 18 year old in the SML sees this prospect's stock rising
Hendrix Lapierre 19 F WSH $2.50 QMJHL 21 8-23=31
-Concussion or neck injuries, whatever you want to call them, is the only reason this player slid at the draft, big jump in production, and healthy in the Q


Tier 3:

Sam Steel 23 F ANA $2.00 NHL 34 4-6=10
-Slightly cheaper price tag then Jones, he is in the exact same boat likely being a forced Toews call up at 121 games played
Max Jones 23 F ANA $2.50 NHL 36 5-4=9
-His last year on the farm, at $2.50 forced he will have to increase production if he wants a 3 year deal with the team


Tier 4:

Bobby Brink 19 F PHI $1.50 NCHC 15 2-9=11
-Seeing a significant dip in goals in his second college season which is a little concerning


Tier 5:

Mitchell Vande Sompel 24 D NYI $1.00 AHL 15 0-5=5
-His numbers are fine at the AHL level but they would have to be significantly better for him to have any value at the next level
Nicolas Meloche 23 D SJ $0.50 AHL 20 0-6=6
-No real pedigree from junior as a scorer and nothing close to that at the pro level

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