AHL Farm Rankings: #9 Shortstackers

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Cheapthief
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AHL Farm Rankings: #9 Shortstackers

Post by Cheapthief » Sun May 02, 2021 1:24 pm

#9 Shortstackers

There were a lot of factors that went into evaluating a players value in the AHL, including age of the prospect, salary, and progression. A younger prospect is given more leeway in terms of production than an older player who has yet to produce at the pro level. The level of competition was also factored.

We broke down the teams into 5 tiers:

Tier 1: PPG potential for a $3.00 forward, 50 point potential for a dman. This group will also have some players with lower base salaries that have high upside, but they aren’t held to quite that standard. For a $1.00 3rd rd pick he needs to have 60+ point upside to be in this elite tier. Most every top prospect drafted in 2020 is given serious consideration of being in this tier.

Tier 2: This is where you will find the very good prospects, some $3.00 players who have regressed a little, and some cheaper players on the uptick production wise.

Tier 3: With the players in this group, their trajectory could go either way and the jury is still out. Typically there is potential at reaching tier 2, but just as likely to fall to the bottom.

Tier 4: They are still considered prospects, but their days are numbers and they don’t have a lot of time left to break out.

Tier 5: These are the duds. The only reason any of them should be on a farm is because there is extra space. There is no upside.

In ranking the farms, the entire farm depth was looked at, with extra weight given to high end talents, especially those already producing at the NHL level.

For each report we will cover the average age of the group, number of players drafted by round, and finally, the number of players on in the NHL now. Within the summary write up for every team, we will also include what their draft pick status for the next 3 seasons.

Summary:

The champ is here. It’s quite impressive to come off a championship and be among the favorites again this season while having a top 10 farm. The Shortstackers have won back to back titles, the first team to do so since The Big M's reeled off five straight in 09-10, and has done well choosing wisely with some immediate support available in Nick Suzuki.

In order to be competitive, you would assume that means he has mortgaged future assets at the trade deadline. Nope. Sure, he only has his 3rd and 4th this draft, , but in the next two after that he is only without his first in 22-23. Not bad, especially when compared to some other contending teams. One division winner (AHL East) from last season went all in, has no assets, no hope, no future, but that’s not how this team was built. These picks are currency that can be used to fine tune the team each year.

So we have established its a decent farm, there are assets in place, so let’s take a look at what makes this core tick. There are plenty of players over 27 you could argue are part of the win now core, but we are more interested in the younger players who may be with the team long term. By my count, that’s 5 dmen and 5 forwards:

Matt Dumba 26 6.50 2 years- that’s a hefty contract Dumba isn’t quite living up to but he has been better this season than last.
Samuel Girard 22 2.50 2.75- fantastic value on an explosive Avalanche offense.
Adam Fox 23 1.00- top of the league and he is just a buck! Signed next season, but will likely get the max bump and get a 3 year deal from $3 on.
Will Butcher 26 .75 2 years- a cheap dman who can put up points is quite valuable in the AHL.
Mario Ferraro 22 .25- see above. Coming into year 2 of an Aho deal.

Nathan MacKinnon 25 $12.25 signed for 6 years- a superstar. You pay for him, and he delivers
Matt Barzal 23 5.25 6.00- another star player just 23 should be with the team for at least a 3 year extension.
Teuro Teravainen 26 3.75 FA- should get resigned depending on what kind of a raise we are looking at.
Tomas Hertl 27 3.75 FA- A main guy in SJ will be getting a pay jump, only question is it a 1, 2, or 3 year deal.
Andrew Mangiapane 25 .50 FA- You gotta find diamonds in the rough and he fits the bill.

A general theme among the top teams in the league we have covered, and will cover, is that they usually have a solid young core along with some veteran help. In this case, guys like Mark Stone and Alex Ovechkin. It’s not enough to, for example, have Panarin and 2-3 other top players when you don’t have depth on those crucial 6 game nights in the playoffs. The depth on this team sets it apart from the pack. Even the weakest lineups are formidable.

They have now won back to back, and a three peat wouldn’t be out of the question.

Average Age: 21.3

Currently in the NHL: 3

1st rd picks: 6
2nd rd picks: 5

3rd rd picks: 3

4th rd picks: 5



Tier 1:

Nick Suzuki 21 F MTL $2.50 NHL 40 8-17=25
-Top 6 offensice role in Montreal appears safe, just under Toews rule one more year

Tier 2:

Jeremie Poirier 18 D CAL $1.50 QMJHL 31 9-25=34
-Better totals in draft year, high upside PP QB at decent price
Ryan Suzuki 19 F CAR $2.50 AHL 20 5-5=10
-Modest rookie season in AHL
Adam Beckman 19 F MIN $1.50 WHL 12 9-7=16
-Excellent WHL numbers, could be a steal
Justin Sourdif 19 F FLA $0.50 WHL 9 4-12=16
-Great 4th year WHL numbers almost 2 pts a game
Dawson Mercer 19 F NJ $2.50 QMJHL 23 19-17=36
-Long term prospect, similar numbers in post draft year in the Q
Justin Barron 19 D COL $0.50 QMJHL 32 7-22=29
-Improved numbers since draft, could be a 4th round steal

Tier 3:

Mathieu Joseph 24 F TB $2.50 NHL 43 10-6=16

-Depth player with high price tag, must Toews next year
Lucas Elvenes 21 F VGK $1.50 AHL 24 5-10=15
-Numbers down slightly from rookie AHL season

Tier 4:

Oskari Laaksonen 21 D BUF $0.50 AHL 17 2-10=12

-Fine AHL numbers, but no real pedigree for high scoring upside
Kristian Vesalainen 21 F WPG $2.50 NHL 8 0-1=1
-Still young, produced well in AHL but not yet in NHL
Joey Anderson 22 F TOR $1.00 AHL 20 7-4=11
-Has gotten some NHL reps, but at 22 is likely a decent AHLer
Ivan Checkhovich 22 F SJ $1.50 AHL 11 1-3=4
-Already 22 but great numbers in KHL, not so much in the AHL so far
Ruslan Iskhakov 20 F NYI $1.00 SML 54 10-28=38
-Too early to tell, but worth keeping based on SML numbers and price tag

Tier 5:

Oliver Kylington 23 D CAL $2.50 NHL 6 0-1=1
-Likely bust 1st rd pick already played 80 NHL games
Noah Juulsen 24 D FLA $1.00 AHL 5 0-1=1
-Cups of coffee in NHL but won't stick, won't put up any points
Patrick Harper 22 F NSH $1.50 AHL 11 0-2=2
-Nothing to see here, 5' 7” wing will not be an NHLer
Ville Pokka 26 D OTT $0.50 KHL 31 4-9=13
-Already 26 and destined for a career in the KHL. Cheap flier, but a bust
Spencer Watson 24 F CHI $0.50 ECHL 29 9-15=24
-It's over for Watson, 4 failed AHL seasons has him demoted to ECHL

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