AHL Farm Rankings: #8 The Big M's

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Cheapthief
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AHL Farm Rankings: #8 The Big M's

Post by Cheapthief » Mon May 03, 2021 1:55 pm

#8 The Big M's

There were a lot of factors that went into evaluating a players value in the AHL, including age of the prospect, salary, and progression. A younger prospect is given more leeway in terms of production than an older player who has yet to produce at the pro level. The level of competition was also factored.

We broke down the teams into 5 tiers:

Tier 1: PPG potential for a $3.00 forward, 50 point potential for a dman. This group will also have some players with lower base salaries that have high upside, but they aren’t held to quite that standard. For a $1.00 3rd rd pick he needs to have 60+ point upside to be in this elite tier. Most every top prospect drafted in 2020 is given serious consideration of being in this tier.

Tier 2: This is where you will find the very good prospects, some $3.00 players who have regressed a little, and some cheaper players on the uptick production wise.

Tier 3: With the players in this group, their trajectory could go either way and the jury is still out. Typically there is potential at reaching tier 2, but just as likely to fall to the bottom.

Tier 4: They are still considered prospects, but their days are numbers and they don’t have a lot of time left to break out.

Tier 5: These are the duds. The only reason any of them should be on a farm is because there is extra space. There is no upside.

In ranking the farms, the entire farm depth was looked at, with extra weight given to high end talents, especially those already producing at the NHL level.

For each report we will cover the average age of the group, number of players drafted by round, and finally, the number of players on in the NHL now. Within the summary write up for every team, we will also include what their draft pick status for the next 3 seasons.

Summary:

The owner prides himself on always icing a contender and is the clear leader in AHL titles (7) to show for it. Upon deep examination of the current core, the farm, and the picks available, there is no reason to think the M’s won’t just keep chugging along in the division of death.

Much of the core is on the wrong side of their 20’s, but just when you think the team is lacking, you see a new group of up and comers to fill the holes. Kiril Kaprizov fills the big shoes of Nikita Kucherov admirably, and there are plenty of other up and comers entering their prime already on the roster. Let’s take a closer look at what the core looks like:

Brett Pesce 26 .75 FA- Will get a pay bump this year
Philippe Myers 24 .50- locked in next season as cheap as can be
Rasmus Sandin 21 .50- loads of potential here with another 4th round find

Nikita Kucherov 27 Exempt then $8.25- missed all season, will be back and bolster the offense
Johnny Gaudreau 27 $6.25 signed 6 years- underperforming, he is an M for the long haul
Robert Thomas 21 $2.50 FA- coming off an Aho deal developing nicely
Chris Tierney 26 $1.25- decent, cheap, depth option
Tyler Bertuzzi 26 $1.25 $1.25- only 9 games this year but 7 pts
Conor Garland 25 $1.00 FA- having a breakout season
Oskar Lindblom 24 $1.00- not a good season after a promising 19-20 campaign
Kiril Kaprizov 24 $0.50- second best rookie in the league this season, the catalyst for a revitalized Wild team

So the core is there, but can the M’s afford it? Easily. Not one to manipulate the cost of this team, always hovering around $60, this team is competitive because it always finds bargains to allow for some room to add some top end talent. Over the next three seasons, as expected, the team has roughly $60 per season.

OK, so there must be no picks on deck yeah? Ah, but there are. Some good ones too. In 21-22 he has his own 3rd and 4th, but adds a Mustangs 1st in addition to pick 21 from PK Dealers. In 22-23 he has all of his own picks, and 23-24 he maintains all but his second. 11 picks over the next three years to find more gems like Kaprizov in the 4th round.

The farm can’t be good then. How can the farm still be good with guys like Kaprizov and Thomas graduating to the big club? Lots of decent prospects that could go either way, a tier one defenseman and midget forward, and a solid group of tier 2 options you shouldn’t expect on a team that has been this good, for this long. Or maybe, that is the secret to winning 7 AHL titles, 5 more than it’s nearest competitor, and 7 more than the team with the #20th ranked farm.


Average Age: 21.1

Currently in the NHL: 5

1st rd picks: 0

2nd rd picks: 5

3rd rd picks: 8

4th rd picks: 7



Tier 1:

Moritz Seider 20 D DET $1.00 SweHL 41 7-21=28
-Excellent rookie AHL season and continuation to SweHL. A complete package sure fire NHLer with a cheap price tag
Nicholas Robertson 19 F TOR $2.00 NHL 4 0-1=1
-Typical 5' 9” Big M with loads of offensive upside, will need top 6 minutes to get there

Tier 2:

Emil Bemstrom 21 F CLB $2.00 NHL 15 0-2=2
-Great promise in rookie season followed by a significant sophomore slump
Ryan Poehling 22 F MTL $1.50 NHL 25 9-10=10
-Didn't produce in MTL last year, but gaining confidence in the AHL, but at 22, PPG should be the expectation
Scott Perunovich 22 D STL $0.50 NCHC 34 6-34=40
-A league leader among dmen at the college level, at 22 needs to make the jump to the pros soon

Tier 3:

Drew Helleson 20 D COL $0.50 H-East 22 4-11=15
-Big jump from rookie season in H-East, several years away from going pro
Brett Berard 18 F NYR $0.50 H-East 19 5-5=10
-A 5' 9” dman drafted by the M's, surprise. Still just 18 but the offensive upside is there, several years from the NHL
Erik Cernak 23 D TB $1.00 NHL 33 2-10=12
-Steady presence on the TB blueline, limited upside, likely you get what you see now, 35pt upside at best
John Farinacci 20 F ARI $1.00 USHL 6 4-4=8
-Covid equals not getting much play time, but in the time he has played, the production is there
Vasily Panomarev 19 F CAR $0.50 QMJHL 33 10-28=38
-Uptick in numbers from his rookie season in the Q, decent flier for a .50 4th round option
Aleksi Heponiemi 22 F FLA $1.50 AHL 3 0-4=4
-Crushed Swe1, managing PPG in limited AHL action. Needs a lot more games before deciding what he is
Tobias Bjornfot 20 D LAK $1.00 NHL 19 0-4=4
-Excellent rookie AHL season, but not a lot of offensive pedigree, expected to be a solid NHLer, but not a PP QB
Tage Thompson 23 F BUF $2.00 NHL 25 5-3=8
-Hard to evaluate this season on a horrendous Buffalo team, but at 23 it needs to happen now for him

Tier 4:

Sammy Walker 21 F TB $0.50 Big-10 31 13-16=29

-Consistent PPG college player on the sidelines due to Covid. Will need more looks to better evaluate what's there
Nathan Lagare 20 F PIT $1.00 QMJHL 19 11-13-24
-Not much to make of a 20 year old tearing up the Q, he needs to make the jump before an accurate analysis can be made
Sam Colangelo 19 F ANA $0.50 H-East 8 0-3=3
-Not a great start to H-East season after a massive outburst in the USHL last year
Dmitri Samorukov 21 D EDM $1.00 KHL 48 2-6=8
-KHL numbers don't tell you much as young players don't get much ice time, but they aren't great
Bode Wilde 21 D NYI $1.00 AHL 15 2-2=4
-6 pts over 35 AHL games isn't good, but next season will likely be the make or break for his career path


Tier 5:

Joe Hicketts 24 D DET $0.50 AHL 16 0-9=9
-Destined to be an AHL journeyman, 24 and zero goals in 16 AHL games isn't going to cut it
Trevor Carrick 26 D ANA $1.00 AHL 31 1-9=10
-26, 10 pts in 31 AHL games is a recipe for full time duty in the minors

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