AHL Farm Rankings: #7 Shoot Loose

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Cheapthief
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AHL Farm Rankings: #7 Shoot Loose

Post by Cheapthief » Tue May 04, 2021 1:25 pm

#7 Shoot Loose

There were a lot of factors that went into evaluating a players value in the AHL, including age of the prospect, salary, and progression. A younger prospect is given more leeway in terms of production than an older player who has yet to produce at the pro level. The level of competition was also factored.

We broke down the teams into 5 tiers:

Tier 1: PPG potential for a $3.00 forward, 50 point potential for a dman. This group will also have some players with lower base salaries that have high upside, but they aren’t held to quite that standard. For a $1.00 3rd rd pick he needs to have 60+ point upside to be in this elite tier. Most every top prospect drafted in 2020 is given serious consideration of being in this tier.

Tier 2: This is where you will find the very good prospects, some $3.00 players who have regressed a little, and some cheaper players on the uptick production wise.

Tier 3: With the players in this group, their trajectory could go either way and the jury is still out. Typically there is potential at reaching tier 2, but just as likely to fall to the bottom.

Tier 4: They are still considered prospects, but their days are numbers and they don’t have a lot of time left to break out.

Tier 5: These are the duds. The only reason any of them should be on a farm is because there is extra space. There is no upside.

In ranking the farms, the entire farm depth was looked at, with extra weight given to high end talents, especially those already producing at the NHL level.

For each report we will cover the average age of the group, number of players drafted by round, and finally, the number of players on in the NHL now. Within the summary write up for every team, we will also include what their draft pick status for the next 3 seasons.

Summary:

Shoot Loose has developed a sneaky good team across the board. Not only do they boast a solid farm system, but there is a healthy core on defense and at forward. Some of that core is problematic, like Tony Deangelo on defense, but that could be addressed using the exempt list. Let’s take a look at this deep core:

Tony DeAngelo 25 $5.75 $6.75- albatross contract for a head case no longer in the NHL, could hit exempt list
Noah Hanafin 24 $4.25 FA- getting pricey for this kind of production
Josh Morrissey 26 $4.25- locked in next season
Rasmus Ristolainen 26 $4.50 $5.00- trend here is good dmen, but pricey contracts
Charlie McAvoy 23 $2.00 $2.00- except this one! Great value for a dman coming into his own offensively
Jacob Slavin 26 $1.25 $1.50- and this one. Production is down this year but good value locked up for 2 more years

Mitch Marner 23 $6.00 7 years- great contract locked up for 7 years
Nick Schmaltz 25 $3.00- locked up for next season
Brock Boeser 24 $3.25 $3.75-excellent young close to PPG producer locked up 2 more years
Alex Tuch 24 $2.50 $2.50- the GM values him as a 40-40 guy, and while that is fucking ridiculous, expect production increases if he can crack the top 6
Jared McCann 24 $1.00 FA- In for a pay jump but cheap enough to earn a 3 year deal
Anthony Cirelli 23 $0.75 $0.75- über cheap contract for prime years ahead

In addition to good work at the draft and free agency, they have made some sharp pick up on the waiver wire.
Long shot $.25 picks up with Kevin Stenlund, Michael Rasmussen, Ross Colton, and Taro Hirose being a core the Mustangs could only dream of.

A solid farm, a solid core, and currency available in draft picks. Over the next three seasons Shoot Loose has all of its own picks with the exception of a 4th in 21-22 and 23-24. There is enough dead weight on the farm to handle those picks, and they will need the room because there is no one close to making the jump from the farm any time soon.

Shoot Loose was able to beat out Puck Warfare for the division crown last season, and all signs point to a battle with Puck Warfare for top spot this season as well.

Average Age: 21.1

Currently in the NHL: 3

1st rd picks: 3

2nd rd picks: 4

3rd rd picks: 7

4th rd picks: 6



Tier 1:

Matthew Boldy 20 F MIN $2.50 AHL 5 3-3=6
-It's only been 5 games, but Boldy is coming out of college hot with 6 points and looking like he belongs
Rodion Amirov 19 F TOR $3.00 KHL 39 9-4=13
-It may not seem like it, but this is actually an incredibly good season for a 19 year old in the KHL

Tier 2:

Mason Lohrei 20 D BOS $0.50 USHL 45 17-38=55
-Big numbers in the USHL seeing a big jump from last season, we shall see if he can continue that trend when he goes pro
Josh Mahura 22 D ANA $1.00 AHL 19 5-10=15
-Has shown offensive flair at the AHL level and produced reasonably in a few NHL stints with the Ducks
Jackson LaCombe 20 D ANA $1.00 Big-10 27 4-17=21
-Having a nice sophomore season in the Big-10 putting up solid numbers for a dman
Kiril Marchenko 20 F CBJ $1.50 KHL 41 15-13=28
-Getting more minutes in the KHL and seeing a modest uptick in offensive production
Rasmus Asplund 23 F BUF $1.00 NHL 17 6-2=8
-6 goals in 17 games for a horrendous Sabres team is significant and something to build on
Ivan Morozov 20 F VGK $0.50 KHL 55 13-18=31
-Jury still out on how much upside there is here, but he did put up decent numbers in the KHL this season
Brayden Tracey 19 F ANA $1.50 WHL 10 6-6=12
-Went pointless in 12 AHL games and back to junior where he is putting up better than PPG in the W

Tier 3:

Marat Khusnutdinov 18 F MIN $1.00 KHL 12 0-2=2
-He's just 18 and will ride the pine in the KHL as is customary in that league, we are several years away from knowing what kind of player he can be
Shane Pinto 20 F OTT $2.00 NHL 1 0-0=0
-Pinto joins the Sens after two PPG years in college
Brendan Guhle 23 D ANA $0.50 AHL 23 2-10=12
-Not terrible in the AHL most of his career, and did show some offensive with the Ducks last season, but hasn't got the call this year
Robert Mastrosimone 20 F DET $0.50 H-East 15 3-5=8
-Had big USHL numbers that haven't translated to college, although he is still putting up mediocre production

Tier 4:

Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 20 F TOR $1.00 AHL 5 0-4=4
-Split time this season in the KHL and with the Marlies showing flashes of offense in both leagues
Nicklas Nordgren 20 F CHI $0.50 SML 6 0-3=3
-Not a lot to go off here, hasn't played enough games to have an idea of where his career trajectory goes next
Nikolai Kovalenko 21 F COL $1.00 KHL 41 6-5=11
-Trending down in the KHL after a promising season
Trent Frederic 23 F BOS $1.00 NHL 36 4-1=5
-Put up some points in the AHL last two seasons but that's unlikely to translate in the NHL where he is destined to become a bottom 6 forward

Tier 5:

Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson 24 F BOS $0.50 SweHL 50 5-8=13
-Midseason trade in the SweHL saw more production, but its unlikely he ever makes it back to the NHL with those numbers
Jake Walman 25 D STL $2.00 NHL 15 1-1=2
-At 25 finally getting some time with the NHL club after 4 mediocre at best years bouncing around the AHL
Julius Honka 25 D DAL $3.00 AHL 17 1-4=5
-Not the progression you want to see from a $3 player, this first round pick is destined to be a bust

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