AHL Farm Rankings: 1 and 1A Cheap Thieves and Broadway

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Cheapthief
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AHL Farm Rankings: 1 and 1A Cheap Thieves and Broadway

Post by Cheapthief » Sun May 09, 2021 2:52 pm

#1A Broadway

There were a lot of factors that went into evaluating a players value in the AHL, including age of the prospect, salary, and progression. A younger prospect is given more leeway in terms of production than an older player who has yet to produce at the pro level. The level of competition was also factored.

We broke down the teams into 5 tiers:

Tier 1: PPG potential for a $3.00 forward, 50 point potential for a dman. This group will also have some players with lower base salaries that have high upside, but they aren’t held to quite that standard. For a $1.00 3rd rd pick he needs to have 60+ point upside to be in this elite tier. Most every top prospect drafted in 2020 is given serious consideration of being in this tier.

Tier 2: This is where you will find the very good prospects, some $3.00 players who have regressed a little, and some cheaper players on the uptick production wise.

Tier 3: With the players in this group, their trajectory could go either way and the jury is still out. Typically there is potential at reaching tier 2, but just as likely to fall to the bottom.

Tier 4: They are still considered prospects, but their days are numbers and they don’t have a lot of time left to break out.

Tier 5: These are the duds. The only reason any of them should be on a farm is because there is extra space. There is no upside.

In ranking the farms, the entire farm depth was looked at, with extra weight given to high end talents, especially those already producing at the NHL level.

For each report we will cover the average age of the group, number of players drafted by round, and finally, the number of players on in the NHL now. Within the summary write up for every team, we will also include what their draft pick status for the next 3 seasons.

Summary:

Broadway was a cap team this year spending the full $90 on all sorts of high priced big named free agents, and while they are incredibly valuable, players like that come and go. It’s the core we want to focus on and after cooking some prospects on the farm for a few years they are ready to get paid and they deserve the hike. Standout farm graduates not even in their prime but already producing. All currently within a price range where Broadway, with $73 already in cap space, can add some of those same big names to the roster next year. Plenty of cap space and assets to make another run next season.

Considering the calibre of graduates on this team, it’s quite remarkable that the farm is still so good and so deep with 8 tier one prospects, all but one (Nic Hague) being a first round pick. The pipeline has several players already in the NHL and will be available for playoff depth next season. The team has a solid core, cap space to add, and top not call-ups that are producing now. Look no further than Joel Farabee. You expect Kaapo Kakko to further develop, and Trevor Zegras has looked amazing every since his coming out party at the World Juniors. Add in Drake Batherson at forward, and some help on D in Hague and Dobson, and you have a taxi squad itching to get in some playoff games next year. The beauty of this group, is they are all free for at least another year.

We have touched on the current core being graduate heavy, and they are, but these are some snipers:

Mikhail Sergachev 22 $4.25- signed one more year but getting pricey in a hurry for such a young player
Jakob Chychrun 23 $2.50 FA - absolute stud having a breakout year with 17 goals
Ethan Bear 23 $1.00- some regression this year and may be losing his role with Edmonton already

Artem Zub 25 $0.25 Aho eligible- Insert latest Ottawa dmen in the top 6

Andrei Svechnikov 21 $3.00 FA- He is about to get paid handsomely on a 3 year extension
Elias Pettersson 22 $2.50 FA- injury plagued season won’t stop him from getting 3 years

Martin Necas 22 $2.50- locked up for one more year making for a dynamic Carolina duo
Jack Roslovic 24 $1.00 FA- Fantastic season in Columbus earning a 3 year extension on a cheap deal

It’s not all that deep, but it’s quality over quantity with this core. It doesn’t need to be that deep because, again, there is plenty of cap space and a group of farmies that can do damage in the playoffs.

What does the asset cupboard look like? As mentioned, we have $73 available this season, and then $60 in each of the next two. There isn’t a ton of room on the farm, but there are enough scrubs and some Toews call-ups soon enough that if Broadway chooses to keep the picks, he can make it work. One pick I imagine he will want to keep, is that fat, juicy, Mustangs 3rd pick in 22-23. In 21-22 he owns his own 2nd and 4th, and also two extra shots at a .50 gem with added 4th rounders. 22-23 he has the Mustangs pick, plus his own 1st, 2nd, and 4th, followed by all of his own picks in 23-24.

Crazy to think that this farm is excellent now… but it was even better last year.


Average Age: 20.9

Currently in the NHL: 10

1st rd picks: 8

2nd rd picks: 4

3rd rd picks: 5

4th rd picks: 2



Tier 1:

Joel Farabee 21 F PHI $2.50 NHL 43 15-16=31
-Having a breakout year in Philly in a top 6 role, expectations of a PPG player here are reasonable with good deployment
Trevor Zegras 20 F ANA $3.00 AHL 13 8-8=16
-Looking like a stud everywhere he plays, stint in NHL, dominating at the WJC, and better than PPG in the AHL
Kaapo Kakko 20 F NYR $3.00 NHL 37 6-6=12
-Just 20, but its been a rough go so far for the highly touted #2 pick expected to be an offensive dynamo, still plenty of time
Drake Batherson 22 F OTT $2.50 NHL 46 17-14=31
-A bit of a surprise, drafted 121st enjoying a breakout season offensively for a bad Sens team
Anton Lundell 19 F FLA $3.00 SML 26 16-9=25
-Coming out party at WJC upped his draft stock, and he is continuing to shine in the SML with much improved production
Nicolas Hague 22 D VGK $1.00 NHL 39 5-9=14
-Scoring pedigree, size, and an opportunity with the big club he has taken full advantage of, must continue to improve skating
Noah Dobson 21 D NYI $2.50 NHL 36 3-9=12
-Developing nicely with improved numbers in sophomore NHL season
Alexander Holtz 19 F NJ $3.00 SweHL 50 7-11=18
-Mainstay on team Sweden internationally, hasn't seen an uptick in numbers since being drafted last year


Tier 2:

John -Jason Peterka 19 F BUF $2.00 DEL 29 8-10=18

-Performing well against men in the DEL, stock has risen since being drafted 34th overall in 2020
Troy Terry 23 F ANA $1.00 NHL 37 7-9=16
-On the cusp of a forced Toews callup, may barely squeak in after 3 NHL seasons with modest production
Cody Glass 22 F VGK $3.00 NHL 27 4-6=10
-Recently demoted, lacking confidence, and not taking advantage of a glorious opportunity in Vegas sees his stock dropping fast


Tier 3:

Nicolas Roy 24 F VGK $0.50 NHL 40 4-6=10
-A bottom 6 player with a good price tag, no offensive upside here but a worthwhile .50 player that chips in occasionally
John Leonard 22 F SJ $1.50 NHL 36 3-9=12
-A consistent scorer in college, getting a chance to play on a depleted SJ team and making the most of it as a rookie
Ryan Johnson 19 D BUF $1.00 Big-10 27 2-12=14
-Improved production in second college season, but will need to continue to develop and elevate those numbers to be of value
Helge Grans 18 D LAK $1.00 SweHL 43 3-9=12
-Modest improvement in SweHL, this is a longer term prospect but is developing in the right direction offensively despite a -21


Tier 4:

Brogan Rafferty 25 D VAN $1.00 NHL 1 0-1=1
-Massive numbers as an AHL rookie, but he is 25. Nonetheless, he has proven he can put up big numbers in pro hockey



Tier 5:

Emil Andrae 19 D PHI $0.50 Swe-1 15 3-3=6
-Not a lot we know about this player without any scoring pedigree, but he has put up 13 pts since the draft
Tyler Madden 21 F LAK $1.50 AHL 12 1-3=4
-AHL rookie hasn't done much since a 2 year stint in college where has a PPG player
Egor Zamula 21 D PHI $2.00 AHL 14 0-2=2
-A late developing offensive dman in the WHL hasn't translated any of it to the AHL level



#1 Cheap Thieves

There were a lot of factors that went into evaluating a players value in the AHL, including age of the prospect, salary, and progression. A younger prospect is given more leeway in terms of production than an older player who has yet to produce at the pro level. The level of competition was also factored.

We broke down the teams into 5 tiers:

Tier 1: PPG potential for a $3.00 forward, 50 point potential for a dman. This group will also have some players with lower base salaries that have high upside, but they aren’t held to quite that standard. For a $1.00 3rd rd pick he needs to have 60+ point upside to be in this elite tier. Most every top prospect drafted in 2020 is given serious consideration of being in this tier.

Tier 2: This is where you will find the very good prospects, some $3.00 players who have regressed a little, and some cheaper players on the uptick production wise.

Tier 3: With the players in this group, their trajectory could go either way and the jury is still out. Typically there is potential at reaching tier 2, but just as likely to fall to the bottom.

Tier 4: They are still considered prospects, but their days are numbers and they don’t have a lot of time left to break out.

Tier 5: These are the duds. The only reason any of them should be on a farm is because there is extra space. There is no upside.

In ranking the farms, the entire farm depth was looked at, with extra weight given to high end talents, especially those already producing at the NHL level.

For each report we will cover the average age of the group, number of players drafted by round, and finally, the number of players on in the NHL now. Within the summary write up for every team, we will also include what their draft pick status for the next 3 seasons.

Summary:

After a 3 year dedicated rebuild, this season was supposed to be a transitional one with a modest goal of making the playoffs. After a 9-20 start due to Covid cancellations, the GM was days away from tearing it all down and selling off what it could. Then magic happened. An 18-5 run to close out the season at 27-25 to squeak in as the #6 seed got hot at the right time taking care of the Underdogs, Mustangs, and Shoot Loose before running into back to back champion Stackers. It was an unexpected run, and as you will see in this report it came with help from unexpected places.

This team was supposed to reach relevance with a core that looked like:
Nolan Patrick
Nico Hischier

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Filip Zadina

But none of those players was relevant to this playoff charge. Instead, the core of Trocheck and Aho, Hintz and Robertson is what led the way night in and night out. Hintz broke out into 1st line center star status, and out of nowhere Jason Robertson put together almost a PPG rookie season playing along side Hintz. A resurgence from Trocheck, and Aho doing his thing, made this forward group formidable any night both Carolina and Dallas played.

There were other bright spots from the tier 1 list on the farm, with Jamie Drysdale getting a surprise call up as a rookie and ended up being one of the teams top dmen. Tim Stutzle, also outperformed both Alexis Lafreniere and Quinton Byfield, both players taken ahead of the young German phenom in last years draft.

The additional benefit to this farm core is that they all get to chill until the playoffs for at least another year and hang on the farm. The tier 1 and tier 2 group boasts players that can contribute immediately in the NHL, along with others who’s stock has only risen since the draft. Because this team has had so many picks in the last 3 years of a rebuild, there hasn’t been any need to hang on to totally deadweight, so even the very worst prospect, Joni Ikonen, has a sprinkle of hope as a tier 4 player. There were no members of this farm playing with the Mustangs farm in the beer league.

In addition to that, there are still plenty of picks in the next 3 seasons with 13. Only two first round picks this year, giving some Toews call-ups a little time to hang out before the restock, but in 22-23 they own their first 3 picks, a 4th, and a potential lottery pick from PK Dealers. In 23-24 its a total of 6 picks, their own first 3, a 3rd, and two extra 4th rd picks that may be used as currency to add.

We touched on the core on this team, and there are question marks about some of the previously mentioned members of what was expected to be the core. Nolan Patrick was already left for dead, but came back on a cheaper deal, for example. Let’s take a look at the core:

Mackenzie Weegar 27 $1.00 $1.25- in his prime, crushing 5 on 5, and a cheap deal locked up

Carson Soucy 26 $0.25- reasonable production for a .25 dman
Matt Roy 26 $0.25- very similar story to that of Soucy

Vincent Trocheck 27 $4.50- doubters thought it was over for him, but Trocheck proved them wrong posting PPG numbers
Nico Hischier 22 $4.75 $5.25- just 22, still plenty of time to turn it around after an injury riddled season, but he is currently overpaid
Jack Hughes 19 $3.75 etc- signed to the standard 15 year franchise player deal

Sebastian Aho 23 $4.25- the lone consistent star during the rebuild just gets the job done every year
Jesperi Kotkaniemi 20 $3.00 FA- Aho deal is over, and time is running out on this 3rd overall pick
Logan Brown 23 $2.50- A likely buyout looking like an absolute dud

Nolan Patrick 22 $2.25 FA- what an absolute fucking bum of a 2nd overall pick
Dillon Dube 22 $0.50 FA- in the doghouse with the new coach, but will get a cheap 3 year .75 deal
Roope Hintz 24 $0.50 FA- will be getting the maximum raise after a breakout season
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 21 Aho eligible- a draftee turned .25 FA pick up will fill out the bottom end of the roster for an Aho deal
Joachim Blichfeld 22- cheap flier gets it done in the AHL, not so much in the NHL as of yet.

Depending on a few decisions that could see some of these players get the axe, the core is set for next season and there is going to be room to add with plenty of cap space, and of course, loads of help from the farm both at forward and on defense.

The year of transition went better than expected and raised expectations from the fan base. A division win will be expected, as will a return to the finals.



Average Age: 20.8

Currently in the NHL: 7

1st rd picks: 7

2nd rd picks: 8

3rd rd picks: 4

4th rd picks: 1




Tier 1:

Tim Stutzle 19 F OTT $3.00 NHL 42 7-16=23
-Rookie phenom outperforming the two top picks from the 2020 draft, playing top 6 and PP1 on a bad Ottawa team, but sky is the limit for him
Jason Robertson 21 F DAL $2.00 NHL 38 12-20=32
-In the convo for NHL ROY, has taken the league by storm on the top line in Dallas and on the PP1, a player who has scored at every level despite skating concerns
Philip Tomasino 19 F NSH $2.00 AHL 18 7-13=20
-Absolutely tearing it up in the AHL as a rookie posting better than PPG numbers, an opening in Nashville won't take long at this rate
Jamie Drysdale 19 D ANA $2.50 NHL 14 2-3=5
-A bit shocking to see him get the call up to the Ducks, but he has performed exceptionally well despite being a teenage defenseman in the NHL, a rarity
Adam Boqvist 20 D CHI $3.00 NHL 32 2-13=15
-Hefty price for a dman, but his offensive development is progressing and he is already the PP QB on the Hawks
Thomas Harley 19 D DAL $2.50 AHL 29 5-11=16
-Fantastic start to his pro career as a 19 year old rookie in the AHL


Tier 2:

Jonatan Berggren 20 F DET $1.00 SweHL 49 12-33=45
-Massive breakout year in SweHL resurrects this prospect and puts him on Detroit's radar for the upcoming season
Ville Heinola 20 D WPG $2.00 AHL 16 4-6=10
-Cups of coffee in the NHL, performing well in his rookie AHL season after being among the stars for team Finland at the WJC
Filip Zadina 21 F DET $3.00 NHL 39 5-11=16
-Top 6 minutes on a rebuilding Red Wings team, hasn't progressed to expectation, but will get another full year on the farm
Lukas Reichel 19 F CHI $2.50 DEL 38 10-17=27
-Improved production in his second season in the DEL playing against men, a longer term wait for his NHL debut
Ian Mitchell 22 D CHI $1.00 NHL 34 2-2=4
-A PPG dman in college, made the jump to the big club this year, not expected to be a PP anchor, but at $1 has 35 pt upside
Jakob Pelletier 20 F CAL $1.00 QMJHL 28 13-30=43
-Eye popping numbers in the Q... but it's the Q where it seems everyone is at least a PPG player


Tier 3:

Vitaly Abramov 22 F OTT $1.00 AHL 22 6-11=17
-Talent and skill is there, but hasn't been able to put it all together yet in the NHL, performing OK in the AHL
Dominik Bokk 21 F CAR $2.00 AHL 18 7-2=12
-Picked it up after a slow start to his rookie AHL season and is posting respectable numbers for a rookie at the pro level
Kole Lind 22 F VAN $2.00 AHL 8 3-5=8
-PPG AHL season going but spending most of his time in waiting on the taxi squad


Tier 4:

Klim Kostin 21 F STL $2.50 KHL 43 7-11=18
-Had ok numbers in the KHL and there are flashes of brilliance, but he isn't bringing that effort consistently
Jesper Boqvist 22 F NJ $1.50 NHL 16 2-2=4
-Got it done in the AHL and earned himself a bottom 6 role on a bad NJ team, but he isn't a regular as he is up and down from the taxi squad
Jonathan Dahlen 23 F SJ $0.50 Swe-1 45 25-46=71
-Demolishing the Swe-1, but his adjustment to pro hockey in the AHL did not go well, prompting him to go home and rebuild some confidence
Jeremy Bracco 24 F CAR $2.00 SML 24 2-15=17
-Exceptional AHL numbers and a promising future derailed by Casino Rama addiction and he is off to the SML where he is producing reasonably
Joni Ikonen 22 F MTL $1.50 SML 23 2-3=5
-Hampered with multiple injuries has hurt his development significantly and the NHL dream is fading fast




Tier 5:

Even a dud like Bracco still has a sliver of hope.

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