2022/23 Pre-season predictions

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bigguyren68
Posts: 79
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:46 am

2022/23 Pre-season predictions

Post by bigguyren68 » Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:59 pm

Season is almost upon us and this is probably the longest we have gone from draft day to start of season in a long time. Just like Connor McDavid in the 2014-15 season, this year has AHL title hopes as well as who gets to draft Connor Bedard next year. As always dictator Bob will make sure anti-tanking rules are followed. I expected a lot of player movements to occur, however the trade winds are very quiet. For player analysis, I used a combo of Bet/MGM and hockey news player point total projections. Forwards level 1 top 30, level 2 top 80, level 3 top 135. Defense Level 1 top 10, level 2 top 30, level 3 top 45. I factored in use of players based on team game nights. Goalie combos I used my sreadsheet.

As always my comments/predictions are not meant to offend anyone except Serge and Dave. They are just the blunt facts.

AHL WEST
1- Puck Warfare
Once again Jay is favourite to win the division. Last years AHL +/-leader looks to put up lower numbers, but still high enough to finish first. While he was hit hard with loss of Malkin, Perron, Meier, Spurgen, I think he retained enough to have a nice team. With seven level 3 and higher forwards and three level 3 and higher defense, he will usually have great shots with every lineups. Goalies work well with only 5 regular season empty nights, and while he has an empty first round (probably bye anyway) he is solid rest of the way.

2-Shootloose
Last years reject cup champ looks to rebound this year. I gave him the nod over Combo and Ravens just based on forward power. His drop list was a bunch of 3rd/4th liners, and at auction he was able to use $34 to grab some quality players. 3 top 30 forwards on his team means he will have always have a chance on non-short nights. A below average defense could hurt, and goalies are a problem with 6 empty during season and two empty playoff.

3-Winning Combo
Winning Combo was able to get some nice pick-ups at draft day even though they was not able to make it. Started the year with more money then last year. Only one level 1 player but four level 3's will mean most nights are competitive . Defense is clearly the best in the division. Goalies are all strong teams but still 5 empty regular and 1 playoff.

4-Red Ravens
This team looks to be on the rise again. The auction wins were miles ahead of player drops. Not including Carlsson, Bryan does not have a lot of elite players but tons of middle depth guys. Solid goalies, only 4 regular season empty and two playoff. Once again they will have lots of farm use and should have better play-offs then regular season.

5- Magically Delicious
Every year it is the same old story for Dan. Big Big forwards, screw the defense and goalies. I assume he will have his rentals traded shortly. Looking at his farm/cash/prospects this will probably be the last of the "tank" years. Others will be rebuilding this year, so the contest will be who can lose the most within the AHL rules. with the most practice my money is on Dan as one of the favs.


AHL EAST
1- Cheap Thieves
The current 2-time AHL runner-up. Nice ring to it, however Daniel looks like he has had enough. At forward Thieves rank #1 in the league with four level 1's, three level 3's, and three level 4's. That's correct 10 projected 0.500 forwards!!!! Many many points will be left on the bench. Defense while not a strong will still feature 3 top 40 guys. Goalies are also the best in the league, with both strong goalies and strong combos. No empty playoff spots and only 3 regular season. The kryptonite and you heard it here first. March 27th game 7 conference finals looks like a Magically Delicious line-up, and he would be the underdog against anyone if it got to that point.

2-Steelheads
The Steelheads made a big splash with trades before draft day acquiring the best D in the league. With already a good solid core of young players, he will also benefit greatly for playoff run via farm. He looks to best positioned to knock off fellow East members. Eight Level 3 and higher forwards are great, but will lack depth at defense. Goalies are good and covered well. Look for Chris to trade and improve early in the year.

3 Canadian Gothic
This 2-time AHL champ team had missed the playoff two years ago but came within 3 points of winning the division last year. Even with early season injuries Dale will still some have good contracts and the most level 3 players in the league. With the days of cheap, good, PK Subban long gone, defense is probably weakest in a long time. A Playoff contender for sure based on other teams, but tough to crack the top teams.

4-Mustangs
I should call this prediction last and lastA. One of the best battles of the year is who will finish lower in the division, Serge or JP and get the better percentage at Connor Bedard. I ended up giving the last place edge to JP over Serge. Jp gutted his team to the bone, while Serge still has some useable pieces. Serge will have to give up on dreams of a 3rd survivor cup. With all the extra time he has, I'm sure he will get some new videos posted shortly.

5- Underdogs
See above. I think the only danger for JP is if he does not trade away his rentals early enough and wins a few games before the tank. Connor Bedard would look amazing in an Underdogs uniform.


AHL NORTH
1-Greaseballs
There are teams that are timid to trade (cough cough Swackers), then there are other with balls the size of watermelons. Brian has had a competitive team 3 straight years, and finished first in the conference last year. Seeing as this was probably his last year before the rebuild, he pulled off one of the biggest trades in a while and moved 2 top 10 scorers. Brian put the $40 to good use and restocked the team. While Bob won the playoffs last year, I'm still predicting a Greaseballs division win.

2-Big M's
The defending champ will once again have a strong team going forward. After getting some KK Russian scares, he looks to have the 2nd best crop of top forwards. This will be one of his weakest defense to start the year in a while. Kiprisov, Kutcherov and Gaudreu looked like the big 1-2-3 punch and will win many many games. The goalies he is starting the year are way better then last. The new dynamic of pick-ups and drops every week for goalies allowed Bob to finagle very few empty nights last year on way to title.

3-Shortstackers
The 2-time AHL champion and 3-time champions league winner is clearly on the decline. Salary increases will whittle away most strong teams and not enough Fox's to compensate for salary boost of others. Zach was unable to attend draft and had to mostly fill in players and goalies. Zach's main team is mostly unchanged from last year so he should still compete but I don't consider him a favourite in any category.

4 Ingman
Missed the playoff last year and tried for a big splash acquiring Matthews and Rantenan. Similar to a beefed up Magic Delicious, this team has a few great high end players, some middle ones, but lacks defense and depth to be a top contender. Goalies have some empty nights but not worst in the league. With the conference so competitive I expect Ingman to be in playoff hunt but not a contender.

5-Whalers
This team has missed the playoffs last year and seem on track to try and finish last for best chance at Bedard. Focused on getting good contracts for future trades Arp was very good at getting players that start season with some injury concerns but will have better value at trade deadline. I predict that Dan, Serge, JP, and Arp will start the season in tank mode. My prediction is that Arp will win the strategy war and end up with the worst record in the AHL.

AHL SOUTH
1-Broadway
I know John is a NYR fan, but really team Broadway is just like the Toronto Maple Leafs. Team looks great in regular season, but during the playoffs, they shit the bed. 4 straight years of great regular season but nothing to show for. He had an all-star drop list, but with $40 he reloaded again. His forwards rank 3rd best in AHL, his defense is 2nd best making for once again a strong balance team team that should win the division. Goalie have 2 empty playoffs but will be addressed before trade deadline.

2-Screaming Eagles
The gap will close again between Ed and John again this year. Ed lost no defenseman this year, and basically only lost Landeskog as he re acquired Forsberg. With lots of cash and drafts accumulated, the eagles could end up trading for more help down the stretch and be the top contender. Goalies are also good and a balanced team in all spots. Expect a good race to the end.

3-Swacker
After lots of back and forth I have decided to rank Swackers 3rd in division. They have 3 top 30 defense, and six level 3 and higher forwards. A great goalie set helps as well. Dave made a surprising playoff run last year but fell short. I suspect if he can make it, his farms will greatly help on another run. Because of the time difference, I think the taxi squad has benefited Dave the most and I am glad for the rule. DONT FORGET GUYS, POST YOUR TAXI SQUAD NOW BEFORE BOB TELLS US.

4-PKdealers
As usual the goalies will be solid with perfect playoffs and regular season. They will start the season with best defence (5 of the top 40) but have the weakest forwards of any playoff contenders. As usual this team will be easy to beat on big-game nights, and hard to beat on shorts nights. The extra $15 cash this year means team will improve, however playoff spot is probably best case scenario.

5-Scarbourgh Shooters
As the price of McJesus and Nylander go up, it makes it harder to field the rest of the team. Just missed the playoffs last year, and team looks a bit weaker. I suspect this will be final run before a rebuild might be in order. This conference makes the playoffs a tough go. Ryan is always good at trading when needed and will do so again.

Champions predictions winners
Lemieux Big M's
Yzerman Puck Warfare
Bonk Cheap Thieves
Bonsignore Eagles

Survivor winner
Cheap Thieves

Over-all AHL Playoffs

Tiger conference has Eagle/Broadway/Big M's/Greaseballs as equal top teams
playoff fighters Shortstackers/Ingman/Swackers/Shooters/ Pkdealers
reject Whalers.

Cheap Thieves are clear-cut fav for Eddie Shack with Steelheads and Warfare top contenders.
Playoff teams are Gothic/Ravens/Shootloose/Combo
Reject team Mustangs/Underdogs/Magic

Gothic lost 2 finals in a row and then won title, Stackers did the same thing, lost 2 in a row and then won. After 2 losses in a row, the pattern says Thieves will win.
That will be my prediction
Thieves(over steelheads) over Greaseballs(over Eagles) in the finals.
Best of luck to all teams.

Cheapthief
Posts: 222
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:11 pm

Re: 2022/23 Pre-season predictions

Post by Cheapthief » Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:42 pm

Mar 27 lineup I think will be better than expected by the time it rolls around:

Jack Hughes, NJ.
Nico Hischier, NJ.
Tim Stutzle, OTT.
Mason McTavish, ANA.
Rudolph Balcers, FLA.
Vinny Hinostroza, BUF or Colin White, FLA.

Jared Spurgeon, MIN.
Jamie Drysdale, ANA.
Cody Ceci, EDM.
Mattias Samuelsson, BUF.

COL (@ANA)

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