2022-23 Halfway mark trends

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bigguyren68
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Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:46 am

2022-23 Halfway mark trends

Post by bigguyren68 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:16 pm

With the halfway mark of the season approaching tonight, it time to look at first half as well as future predictions.

AHL WEST
1- Puck Warfare pre season rank-1
Jay, who has had a great run of 10 years once again manages to stay relevant. Currently sitting top of the division by one point. lots of leaning towards Florida Panthers players but rest is well balanced. Goalies and defense are in bottom half, however forwards are very strong. I expect Puck Warfare and Shootloose to fight out for the division title to the end. Division win avoids first round , however second round vs Thieves/Steelheads will be tough.

2-Shootloose pre season rank -2
The most balanced team in the league sits top 7 in all 4 +/_ categories. In my opinion he drafted at auction the best value defensemen Karlsson for this year. 2 top Leafs forwards can lead to heavy swings and Tony will live/die with the Toronto offence. Beating Puck Warfare is tough but do-able and avoids one round of playoffs.

3-Winning Combo pre -season rank -3
Winning Combo has been competitive again this year. Having only 3 players at 0.600 or higher hurts and having 2 on same teams has a lot of "all or nothing" line-ups. Trades can fix those problems and trade deadline deals I'm sure are in the works. Not super strong in any category but no weakness. Probably in a fight for playoff spot all year.

4-Red Ravens pre-season rank - 4
Red raven has risen up from last year, but not as much as expected. He always has balanced teams with almost no double ups. 7 forwards with 0.500 or better will mean forward lineups are deep. Anything can happen in playoffs

5- Magically Delicious pre-season rank - 5
Dan, Dan, Dan. The only thing worse then losing, is potentially getting fleeced by Serge. After 7 games this year Magic was 1st in division, 4th overall in league and 18th in +/-. Today 2 of those have changed, still 18th in +/-, 5th in division, 16th overall. Mustangs was the only owner to recognize the over performance, and trade away a disappointing Patrick Kane and get Magic Delicious 1st in a Connor Bedard draft. I personably don't think that will happen, however if it does happen it will go down as 2nd worst trade of all-time. Ranking in the bottom 5 in all categories, Magic will need lots of help getting to playoff spot.


AHL EAST
1-Steelheads pre season rank -2
The Steelheads had made a big splash with trade before draft day acquiring the best D in the league. Fast forward 3 weeks later and acquired forwards Malkin, Pavelski, Nylander, and defense Chychrun, Faulk, Pietro. Those 6 are better then some other teams top 6. Loss of E Kane hurts some depth but still well suited to be a top team. Originally picked as second best in division, a softer schedule has them with a 8 point lead over Thieves. The division win avoid a first round match-up as well as an easier 2nd round. With $8.00 cap and lots of future assets, a trade at deadline is still on the table. They are now the Favourites.

1- Cheap Thieves pre-season rank-1
Things have gone well and not so well for the Thieves this year. At forwards Thieves rank #1 in the league by a mile. The doubled up combos have mostly been rectified. Robertson was expected to do really well, yet has somehow managed to over-perform. So far the Defense has been abysmal, with Letang underperforming and no-one above 0.270. 2 big trades solved that weakness thanks to Josi and Carlsson. Cheap Thieves have had some bad match-ups with one of the highest scores against (Mustangs through 37 games- 2 game total 8.5 vs Thieves, other 35 games, 35.0 rest of the league). Goalies had 2 early empty nights so start slow in that catagory, but good the rest of the year. Injuries might play a role but depth should handle that. 8 points back is a tough assignment, however they have the firepower to do it.

3 Canadian Gothic pre-season rank -3
Early season injuries hurt Dale right off the bat, yet he still manages to stay in the hunt. While Gothic is not top 10 in any category, he is not weak anywhere. Balanced allotment of teams and decent depth allow for potential to get bigger pieces. Will be very tough to finish higher then 3rd.

4- Underdogs pre-season rank - 5
With league min spent it is hard to see how Jp has won this many games. While I know there is no incentive to win since he does not own his first, there is the "get what you can" for players you don't need/want. Mark Schiefle that can used for 75 AHL games was worth more then Schiefle that can be only used for 37 games. Injuries also factor in and there is no worse feeling then having an injured rental on sidelines. I predict Underdogs will stay ahead of Mustangs but barely.

4-Mustangs
As expected the Mustangs will finish out of playoff and have a lottery pick. His middle depth guys keep chipping in points and giving him unwanted wins. What was not expected? Trade Guru that he is. He was able to turn 2 rentals into 2 potential lottery picks. 3 shots a Bedard. Wow. At least while not able to cheer for Mustangs this year, Serge can have lots to cheer for his NHL team.


AHL NORTH
1-Greaseballs pre-season rank -1
Brian has had a competitive team 3 straight years, and continues this year. Leading the defense category by a mile, and still great forwards will position him to do well in a competitive North title race. While Brian likes to say that all scores are luck driven, I like to point out that fielding good teams, puts you in the best position to use that luck.

2-Big M's pre-season rank -2
The defending champ is as expected fighting for top spot in division. Forwards are strong, defense is strong, goalies are still suspect but Bob will find a solution. With powerhouse Broadway in other division, a title is great but avoiding 2nd round matchup is better. The Zookeeper is finally getting showcase his prized Giraffe and plans to get lots of use during playoffs.

3 Ingman pre-season rank -4
Locked in a 3 way battle for division, Ingman has great high end players, but lacks some depth. Having to overspend on Matthews and Rantenan leaves little space for acquiring other assets. Goalies have some empty nights but skaters make up for it. Top 2 finish is required to avoid tough 2nd round match-up

4-Shortstackers pre-season rank 3
The 2-time AHL champion and 3-time champions league winner is on the downside. Zach needed lots of help to stay competitive and has not been able to get it. First missed playoffs in a while, but benefit is potential lottery.


5-Whalers pre-season rank -5
This team is one of my favorites. He will miss the playoffs and probably finish last. Hard task to do while not breaking any anti-tanking rules. I would prefer Connor Bedard in a PKDealers jersey, however Whalers would be a good fit for him. As predicted, Arp will win the strategy war and end up with the worst record in the AHL.

AHL SOUTH
1-Broadway pre-season rank
There is little doubt who the top team currently is (sorry Chris, Daniel). Does not mean it will stay there as I believe with the Thieves and Steelheads trades, all 3 teams are close to equal. Everyone seems to be afraid of Broadway as there has been a crazy 54.0 +/- scored against. That will balance out and some losses coming. I think division might be locked up before 2023.

2-Screaming Eagles pre-season rank 2
The Eagles once are in a playoff hunt. Ed always seems to grab the good undrafted NHL players and did again. Overall the Eagles are underperforming and I think they will help carry him 2nd in division. Eagles have lots of trade room and can upgrade easily.

3-PKdealers pre season rank -4
As usual the Pkdealers sit 1st in goalies category, what is a shock is top 5 in overall +/-. Forwards and goalies are clearly over-performing, and will come down to earth. They still have enough to get into playoffs.

4-Swacker pre-season rank 3
Team Swacker has decided to go for a swim this year and "float". No trades to make team better, but no wholesale sells either. Of the top 7, he probably projects 7th and will miss the playoffs as the reject cup favourite.

5-Scarbourgh Shooters pre-season rank 5
With the trade of McJesus Ryan has officially thrown the towel on the year. A lottery pick in the works. Would be something if the year he traded McDavid, he wins Bedard right after.

Updated
Champions predictions winners
Lemieux Big M's
Yzerman Puck Warfare
Bonk Cheap Thieves
Bonsignore Steelheads

Survivor winner
Cheap Thieves

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